SOFI Stock Analysis: The Fintech Powerhouse Wall Street Is Wrong About

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While the latest news from SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI) has largely been positive, you wouldn’t think that if all you did was view a SoFi Technologies stock chart. Despite beating quarterly earnings, shares in the fintech firm and neobank continue to slump. Clearly, market sentiment for SoFi remains on the bearish side.

With 17.6% of its float sold short, Wall Street’s “smart money” suggests downside risk for the stock. With shares more-than reasonably priced, and plenty suggesting that the bull case will prevail, your best move with SoFi may be to go against the grain.

SoFi Technologies Stock and the Market’s Bearish Stance

On April 29, SoFi released its fiscal results for the quarter ending March 31, 2024, along with updates to guidance. As mentioned above, SoFi delivered an earnings beat, with GAAP earnings per share coming in at 2 cents, versus forecasts calling for EPS of 1 cent per share. Net revenue of $580.65 million also came in moderately ahead of consensus.

Compared to the prior year’s quarter, net revenue was up 26%, adjusted EBITDA was up 91%, and tangible book value was up by 28%. Memberships and total products were up 44% and 38%, respectively, compared to Q1 2023. In terms of outlook, SoFi slightly raised full-year revenue and earnings guidance.

So, with such solid results, why has the market maintained a bearish stance on SoFi Technologies stock? Chalk it up to several factors.

For one, lending revenue fell during the quarter. Also, SoFi may have raised full-year guidance, but its updated guidance for the current quarter fell short of expectations.

To top things off, longstanding concerns about credit quality and loan accounting practices continue to linger. Yet while these factors helped to drive a post-earnings plunge for SoFi Technologies, there are substantive counters to both concerns.

Onward and Upward in the Years Ahead

Mizuho’s Dan Dolev has long been bullish on SoFi Technologies stock. Since the latest earnings release, the analyst has reiterated this view, as well as his $12 per share price target.

In his latest research notes, Dolev has pointed out that recent sale of delinquent loans, plus the company’s prudence when it comes to near-term lending growth, are encouraging signs for SoFi’s ability to ride out a potential economic downturn.

With this, you may be thinking, “ok, downside risk for SOFI may not be so massive, but what up the upside potential?”

Lending growth may not be too impressive right now, but the rest of SoFi’s business continues to hum along with above-average rates of growth.

Now at the point of profitability, incremental revenue growth is poised to have an outsized impact on earnings. Sell-side forecasts call for EPS to nearly triple next year, to 23 cents.

The high end of 2025 forecasts call for EPS of 36 cents. Macro issues could normalize by then, paving the way for a resurgence in lending growth. A spate of positive developments like these could send SOFI onward and upward to substantially higher prices.

Bottom Line: Buy Now, Ahead of the Sentiment Shift

At 88.3 times forward earnings, SoFi Technologies shares may seem pricey, but with exponential earnings growth likely because of operating leverage, don’t assume this rich forward multiple means SOFI is overvalued.

A few years from now, SoFi’s earnings could scale up to $1 per share. Not too shabby, compared to SOFI’s current $7.30 per share stock price.

Although there’s the risk shares could get stuck with a lower multiple, due to the fact that it’s more of a bank than a pure-play fintech, hitting Dolev’s $12 per share price target is well within reach.

With all of this in mind, ahead of the next sharp shift in sentiment back to bullish for SoFi Technologies stock, consider it a buy at current prices.

On the date of publication, Thomas Niel did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

Thomas Niel, contributor for InvestorPlace.com, has been writing single-stock analysis for web-based publications since 2016.

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